On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk―and the players raising the stakes

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape―and dominate―so much of modern life.

These professional risk takers―poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors―can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21^st century. By embedding within these worlds, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset―including the flaws in their thinking―is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.

Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers.

Review

Masterly… If you ― like me ― find gambling irresistible, then this section of the book is utterly compelling. It is clear enough to be accessible to the layman but with enough detail and anecdotes to interest those who already know the basics. … [A] highly readable and engaging tour -- Sam Freedman ― The Times

Engrossing… The River and the Village are among the more memorable and illuminating new social typologies I’ve come across in recent years… A meditation on risk, a study of those most comfortable taking it and an invitation for the rest of us to think about what it means that so much more of our lives now seems to hang on it -- David Wallace-Wells ― New York Times

A compelling read… Silver covers a lot of ground in this likeable, insightful read, investigating risk-taking ability and how it applies to blue-sky investing. It’s worth the price of the tour -- Alan Livsey ― Financial Times

Nate Silver is that very rare thing, a celebrity statistician… in a class of his own… As a guide to our dystopian future, in which everyone is busy updating their priors and sizing their bets, On the Edge is indispensable -- Ian Sansom ― Telegraph

One of the most gripping accounts I have ever read -- Paul Seabright ― TLS

An enjoyable ride -- Idrees Kahloon ― New Yorker

Engaging and entertaining… A glimpse of the economy of the future -- Tim Wu ― New York Times Book Review

Silver had initially intended to write mostly about gambling but ultimately widened his scope as he became convinced that gambling might provide a framework for understanding risk takers in other fields. The result is a book that’s more interesting―Silver managed to land an interview with Bankman-Fried shortly before his arrest in the Bahamas―and more subversive -- Max Chafkin ― Bloomberg

In On the Edge, Silver compellingly theorizes that humans are in general too risk averse, and that those who can discerningly fight that impulse often benefit greatly in life . . . A thought-provoking interdisciplinary book which covers a host of timely topics from artificial intelligence, political theory and what happens when risk takers go too far ― Associated Press

A clever look into a unique realm. An enlightening study of the people who play the game of risk and win -- Kirkus Reviews (starred)

Colorful and enlightening ― Publisher's Weekly

About the Author

Nate Silveris the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the internationally bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, which was published in a dozen languages. He writes the Substack 'Silver Bulletin'.