How Countries Go Broke. The Big Cycle

An urgent warning about the global economy from Ray Dalio, the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles.

Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke – and what would that look like?

For decades, politicians, policymakers and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them. In this groundbreaking book, Ray Dalio, one of the greatest investors of our time who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010–12 European debt crisis, shares for the first time his detailed explanation of what he calls the 'Big Debt Cycle'. Understanding this cycle is critical for helping policymakers, investors and the general public grasp where we are and where we are headed with the debt issue. Dalio's model points toward surprisingly straightforward solutions for dealing with the debt problems that the US, Europe, Japan and China face today.

How Countries Go Broke also shows how these debt problems are related to the other forces – political within countries, geopolitical between countries, natural (droughts, floods and pandemics) and technological (most importantly, AI) – that together are causing what Dalio calls the 'Overall Big Cycle' changes in the world order. By reading this book, you will improve your understanding of what's happening now and what to do about it.

Review

'Everything Ray Dalio writes is compelling reading for the investor and the policymaker. This is an excellent and bracing study of one of the toughest and most dangerous set of policy risks, adding to his already valuable work on what drives the rise and demise of markets, economies and empires.' -- Timothy Geithner, former Secretary of the Treasury

'Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity – the ticking debt bomb. No one understands markets and fiscal cycles better than Ray. His book is a must read for policymakers and anyone who wants to dig deep and learn. This book is a gift to humanity.' -- Henry M. Paulson Jr., former Secretary of the Treasury

'Ray Dalio's brilliant, iconoclastic approach to understanding financial markets and the economy has richly rewarded him with the predictive powers that made him one of the great investors of our time. This book distills his insights and applies them to the current perilous moment. It is an invaluable resource for policy makers, investors and citizens.' -- Lawrence H. Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and author of Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy After the Great Recession

'Ray Dalio is issuing an exceedingly important warning about how countries go broke, how that pertains to the U.S., and what needs to be done to change course. His nonpartisan insights are grounded in experience and analysis – let’s hope every lawmaker reads this book before they consider voting to add even another dollar to the national debt.' -- Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

'There’s so much going on in the world right now, and Ray is my go-to voice for understanding what it all means. His new book is a must-read' -- Tony Robbins, #1 New York Times bestselling author, global entrepreneur, investor, philanthropist and the world's #1 life and business strategist

About the Author

Ray Dalio is the founder and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best performing hedge fund in the world. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He is the author of Principles, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. He lives with his family in Connecticut, USA.